11th Annual Real Options Conference
Berkeley, CA, USA, June 6-9, 2007

Sponsored by

Real Options Group
Haas Business School, University of California at Berkeley

Download in PDF format

REAL OPTIONS VALUATION

IN THE KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY

Energy, Innovation, R&D/Portfolios, Supply Chain Mgt, Strategy, Company Valuation

Features

·         Practical presentations and case applications by experts from leading corporations and universities

·         Panel discussions by leading experts in various hot areas

·         Tutorials/keynote presentations from thought leaders

·         Networking reception to interact with your peers in a relaxing atmosphere

Benefits of Attending

·         Learn how to make flexible step-by-step decisions and adapt to change to gain competitive advantage

·         Take advantage of uncertainty to capitalize on upside opportunities while limiting downside risk

·         Translate your corporate strategic plans into forward-looking real option value that enhances shareholders´ wealth and market price

·         Understand (and communicate) the advantages of options thinking and dynamic methods compared to discounted cash flow analysis

·         Learn how to structure your decisions & agreements to maintain valuable flexibility

·         Quantify the value of strategic investment opportunities and operating options

·         Value innovation/technology investments and growth companies

·         Learn about successful applications in Energy, R&D/Portfolios,  Supply Chain Mgt, Company Valuation, Corporate Strategy

·         Benefit from experiences of leading corporations that are currently using real options

·         Consider the benefits and challenges of adapting real options into your organization

·         Meet and interact with international thought leaders and peers from leading corporations

Organized by

Real Options Group (ROG)

The leader in real options-based research and consulting services

Providing comprehensive total enterprise package solutions, extending real options analysis into strategy, corporate valuation/M&As, risk management, compensation, training/change management

Co-sponsored/hosted by
MFE program/Haas School of Business
University of California at Berkeley

DAY 1

Wednesday June 6, 2007

ENERGY, STRATEGY, R&D/PORTFOLIOS, INNOVATION

8:00  Registration

8:20 Welcome/Orientation

ENERGY

8:30 Real Options in Energy: The Gas-to-Liquid Technology with Flexible Input

Marco A.G. Dias, Petrobras, Brazil

8:55 Options to Switch Among Sugar and Ethanol

Carlos B. Pinto and Luiz Brandao, PUC-Rio, Brazil

9:20  Real Option Analysis of the Energy-Intensive Chemical Industry

Tom Murphy, Real Options Group, USA

9:45 Explaining the Value of Electricity Utilities: An Application to Norway

Frode Kjerland, Bodo Graduate School of Business, Norway

10:05 Morning Coffee Break

COMPETITION, STRATEGY & GROWTH OPTIONS

10:35 Option Games: Cornerstone of Strategic Investment

Jayanti Kar, McKinsey & Co

11:05 Entering a New Market: Real Options and Games

Sergio Ramos, Deloitte Consulting, and Ricardo Rochman, FGV-EAESP, Brazil

11:30 Valuing Company Expansion Strategy: An Application at Cyprus Winery

Sophocles Ioulianou, Real Options Group, Cyprus

11:50 A Real Options Approach to Business Planning and Valuation of Start-ups

Carlo Capello, Politecnico di Torino, Italy

12:15 Keynote Luncheon Address by Tom E. Copeland (MIT)

R&D & PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION

2:00 Pricing the Risk of R&D Capital Expenditures

Said Boukendour, University of Quebec, Canada

2:15 The Value of Excess Plant Capacity for R&D Manufacturing

Gill Eapen, Decision Options LLC, USA

2:35 Real Options in a Manufacturing R&D Portfolio: Business Engineering Practices at Boeing

Scott Mathews, The Boeing Company, USA

3:00  R&D Portfolio Optimization

John Rust and Piers Wells, Booz Allen Hamilton, USA

3:25  Building and Implementing an Optimal Portfolio Strategy (Through Options across Business Initiatives)  

Vladimir Antikarov, Real Options Group, USA

3:50 Afternoon Coffee Break

INNOVATION/ BEST AND MULTIPLE EMBEDDED OPTIONS

4:30 Valuing an Option on the Best of Two Product Standards: An Application at Philips Electronics

Enrico Pennings, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Netherlands

4:55 Options to Choose Among the Best of Several States in the Physical and the Information  Realm

John Kensinger and James Conover,  University of North  Texas, and Andrew Chen, Southern Methodist University, USA

5:20 Project Safeguards: Embedding Real Options in Complex Products and Systems: An Application at an Airport Expansion Programme

Nuno Gil, CRMP/University of Manchester, United Kingdom

5:25 Closing Remarks

DAY 2

Thursday June 7, 2007

ENTREPRENEURSHIP, GROWTH STOCK VALUATION, SUPPLY CHAIN MGT & INTERACTIONS

8:30 – 8:45  Welcome

8:45 PRESIDENT’S ADDRESS

On Growth Stock Returns

Lenos Trigeorgis, University of Cyprus, UC Berkeley and President, Real Options Group

VENTURE CAPITALISTS AND ENTREPRENEURS

9:30 Moral Hazard When the Entrepreneur Seeks Outside Capital

Gabriela Siller-Pagaza and German Otalora, ITESM, Mexico

9:55 Post-IPO Governance: Venture Capitalists’ Role in Strategic Decisions
Nalin Kulatilaka and Lihui Lin, Boston University  

10:20 Risk, Uncertainty and Optimism in Venture Capital Relationships    
Ajay Subramanian, Georgia State University

10:45 Morning Coffee Break

GROWTH STOCK VALUATION

11:15 How Much is Google Worth?

Laura Martin, Soleil/Media Metrics

11.25 How Much is Starbucks Worth?

Lenos Trigeorgis, Real Options Group

11.35 How Much is Clean Energy Worth?

Nalin Kulatilaka, Boston University

11:45 – 12:30 Panel Discussion I: Growth Stock Valuation

Moderator: Martha Amram, Milken Institute

Panelists:

Nalin Kulatilaka (Boston U.)

Laura Martin (Soleil/Media Metrics)

Lenos Trigeorgis (ROG)

12:30 Luncheon

SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

2:00 Using Capacity Options to Better Enable our Factory Ramps

David Metcalf, Intel

2:20 Leveraging Sales, Marketing, Product Development and Engineering Resources to Evaluate New Product Opportunities

Eunice Lee, Apple Inc.

2:40 Evaluating Sales Options and Assessing Realized Performance across Customer and Product Segments

Thomas Olvason, Hewlett Packard

3:00 Large-scale Implementation of a Real-options based Approach to Manage Supply Chain Risks at HP

Venu Nagali, Hewlett Packard

3:15 Afternoon Coffee Break

3:45 Creating Competitive Advantage by Aligning and Leveraging "Operating" Options along the Value Chain
Blake Johnson, Stanford University

4:15 –5:00 Panel Discussion II: Capitalizing on a Huge Value Opportunity: Implementation Strategies for Supply Chain Management
Moderator: Blake Johnson, Stanford University
Panelists:
Eunice Lee (Apple Inc.)
Venu Nagali (Hewlett Packard)
Scott Mathews (The Boeing Company)
David Metcalf (Intel)
Thomas Olvason (Hewlett Packard)

CORPORATE FLEXIBILITY, STRATEGIC INTERACTIONS AND RESTRUCTURINGS

5:15 – 6:00 Panel Discussion III: Interactions Between Real and Financial Options

Moderator: Mitchell R. Julis, Managing Partner, Canyon Capital Advisors

Panelists:

Martha Amram (Milken Institute)

Vladimir Antikarov (Real Options Group)

Tom E. Copeland (MIT)
Gill Eapen (Decision Options LLC)

6:15 - 7:15  Networking Reception

Sponsored by ROG and MFE/Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley

About the Conference

Venue

Haas School of Business

University of California at Berkeley

2220 Piedmont

Berkeley CA 94720-1900

Tel: (510) 642-1499; 642-6471

Hotels, Airport/Transport, Registration

See www.realoptions.org                                                             

Important Administrative Information

Registration fees include the conference proceedings and other materials, gifts, lunches, coffee breaks, and receptions. Substitutions (from the same organization) can be made at any time. Cancellations made in writing by May 30 can be refunded, except for a 15% service charge. Those not attending or canceling after May 30 are responsible for the whole fee. The organizers reserve the right to make changes to the program without notice. Only registrations paid by May 30 are guaranteed to be confirmed and included on the official list of participants. For information on registration and other general-type conference-related inquiries contact Helen (tel +357 22892786; fax +357 22892810; e-mail conference.registration@realoptions.org). For information on local logistics, Haas School of Business or Berkeley contact June Wong at the Finance area (tel 510 642-1499, e-mail june@haas.berkeley.edu) or Nebil Gali at MFE (tel 510 643-8191, email ngali@haas.berkeley.edu). Registration for this conference should be made online via the real options conference website www.realoptions.org.

Who Should Attend?

CEOs, CFOs, Heads of Strategy, Vice Presidents,

Directors, Investment Bankers, and Analysts in:

Ø  Strategic Planning

Ø  Corporate Finance

Ø  Risk or Portfolio Management

Ø  Market Valuation/Security Analysis

Ø  Information Technology

Ø  Marketing

Ø  Supply Chain/Contracting

Ø  R&D

Speakers from Leading Organizations

Apple Inc. –  Berkeley U. – The Boeing Company – Booze Allen Hamilton – Canyon Capital Advisors – Deloitte - Hewlett Packard – Intel – Manchester U. – McKinsey & Co – Milken Institute – MIT – Petrobras – Real Options Group – Stanford U.

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